The Carbonfuture Perspective: Advancing the CDR Market Together

Welcome to Carbonfuture’s Q3 Newsletter!

"The time to invest in carbon removal is now." We’ve all heard the phrase. What’s new is that the market is finally sending a clear signal.

In 2024, just under 8 million tonnes of durable carbon removal were contracted. In Q2 2025 alone, that figure nearly doubled to 15.5 million tonnes. By Q3, demand is already outpacing supply for certain projects. Looking ahead, annual demand could reach more than 600 million tonnes by 2030 — a supply crunch in the making.

The real bottleneck is capital. Scaling carbon removal requires capital moving in sync: corporates through offtakes, VCs backing early technologies, banks and institutional investors structuring finance, and governments using procurement to send demand signals. Policy frameworks must also provide the confidence investors need to act.

At Climate Week NYC 2025, the same theme came through again and again: capital must flow in sync to take carbon removal from pilot to infrastructure scale. The message was clear: net zero means net zero. Turning ambition into infrastructure is no longer optional. Catch more perspectives from a packed week here, here, here, here, here, and here.

Durable CDR credits are also gaining recognition as an emerging asset class. The CEO of SIX Swiss Exchange recently underscored this, pointing to standardization, liquidity, and transparency as the foundations of the financial infrastructure needed to scale carbon removal.

Keep reading for insights, case studies, and updates from across the ecosystem.

Hannes Junginger

CEO, Carbonfuture

● Supplier Spotlight

Building the Global South’s First Direct Air Capture Plant with Independent dMRV

Octavia Carbon is rapidly advancing Direct Air Capture (DAC) in Kenya’s Rift Valley. By tapping into the region’s geothermal power and basalt geology, they’ve created a unique setup where carbon can be captured from the air and permanently stored on-site.

The Octavia team engineered its technology with dMRV at the core to ensure trust and eliminate uncertainty. This foundation has allowed them to focus on rapid improvements, driving down costs while showing clear progress to their stakeholders. That commitment has already earned them a rare AAA rating from BeZero and secured multi-year offtake agreements with credit buyers.

“We’re selling an intangible commodity, so the thing that differentiates that is the trust that buyers have in it. What source of energy is being used and how much? What sort of materials are going into this? These are the things we spend a lot of time optimizing, so that we can guarantee our customers the highest quality credit. That’s why we engineered our technology with MRV at the heart of it.” — Duncan Kariuki, CTO and Co-Founder, Octavia Carbon

With over 70 local employees, apprenticeship programs, and gender equality initiatives, Octavia is a powerful example of how climate innovation can drive community empowerment.

Discover how Octavia Carbon is scaling climate action from Kenya here.

● Buyer Spotlight

Aviation's Hard-to-Abate Challenge: How Heliswiss International is Acting Now

Heliswiss is a global leader in heavy-lift, transport, and specialized aerial operations. With a modern fleet of helicopters and decades of expertise, the company supports projects in construction, power line assembly, forestry, disaster relief, and logistics in some of the world’s most challenging environments.

Aviation remains one of the hardest sectors to abate. While sustainable aviation fuels and new technologies hold promise, their availability and scalability are still limited. For Heliswiss, durable carbon removal — combined with direct reduction measures like fleet optimization and fuel efficiency — offers a feasible and effective way to reduce its CO₂ footprint today.

Through its partnership with Carbonfuture, Heliswiss can select from a portfolio of high-quality carbon removal projects in a single, flexible contract — tailored to its needs and backed by transparent data. This flexibility, combined with clear and client-friendly processes, made collaboration straightforward and aligned with the company’s sustainability goals.

"Our collaboration with Carbonfuture brings trustworthy and high-quality carbon removal solutions to Heliswiss International and therefore to the heavy lift segment of the industry, helping us make aviation more sustainable, one flight at a time." — Martin Schlumpf, Deputy CEO & Head of Sales & Project Management, Heliswiss International

● Policy Update

The debate on the EU's 2040 climate target has been dominating the headlines. Most relevant for CDR: the likely inclusion of 3% of international credits. Sounds negligible? Given the baseline is 1990, and the start date tbd, it could actually be as much as 800Mt of credits in the 2030s. The outstanding key question: what type of credits and what role will durable removals play?

Meanwhile, we are seeing Europe's two biggest economies competing for the title of CDR leader in Europe (a competition we very much welcome). The UK plans to use 15-year contracts for difference (CfDs) as well as provide CAPEX finance for up to 50%. It also intends to integrate CDR into its ETS as early as 2029 - ahead of the EU.

It's also been a stellar quarter for Germany, where the government intends to fund CDR with half a billion euros until 2033, of which almost €150m in 2026 alone. And CDR is also getting its own dedicated government department, which is the first worldwide.

What else is happening:

The CDR Policy Scoop (co-hosted by Carbonfuture’s Sebastian Manhart) recorded episodes with deep dives on all developments above (and beyond)
Carbonfuture released a Policy Brief on Switzerland
The EU released a whopping 400 pages on options for integrating CDR into European climate policy

● Industry Digest

CDR.fyi: Biochar Carbon Removal Market Snapshot 2025

Since CDR.fyi’s first recorded CDR orders in 2019, biochar carbon removal (BCR) has been the undisputed delivery leader amongst CDR methods. In this report, the CDR.fyi team analyzed the dynamics that have shaped the supply and demand for BCR credits. Read the report here.

SIX: Durable CDR Credits – Emerging as an Asset Class

Bjørn Sibbern, CEO of SIX, explains the 𝘸𝘩𝘺, 𝘸𝘩𝘢𝘵, 𝘢𝘯𝘥 𝘩𝘰𝘸 of how CDR credits are evolving from a climate solution to a recognized and reliable market category.

Read the interview here to see how Carbonfuture and SIX are laying the groundwork.

BCG & DVNE: Investment Need and Support Mechanisms for Scaling CDR in Germany and Europe

How can Germany and Europe unlock the full value of CDR for climate, economy, and society? This report lays out concrete support options, identifies strategic entry points into the EU ETS, and outlines how Germany can shape a credible, investable CDR market. Download the report here.

Carbonfuture: 5 Essential Steps for Carbon Removal Suppliers to Build a Market-Ready CDR Project

Is your carbon removal project market-ready? This article outlines 5 proven steps to take your project from concept to market-ready, securing financing, certification, and buyer trust, based on insights from Carbonfuture experts and best practices from leading suppliers. Read the article here.

● Meet the Carbonfuture Team at Upcoming Events

Q4 is shaping up to be an exciting season for climate and carbon removal. Our team will be on the ground at key industry gatherings across aviation, energy, climate, and technology. Catch the Carbonfuture team at these events:

World Aviation Festival | Oct. 7-9 | Lisbon, Portugal
Chile Carbon Forum | Oct. 7-8 | Santiago de Chile, Chile
SemiCon West | Oct. 7-9 | Phoenix, Arizona, USA
Colombia & Latin America Climate Summit | Oct. 14-16 | Bogotá, Colombia
Japan CCUS Summit | Oct. 15-16 | Tokyo, Japan
Carbon Unbound Europe | Oct. 21-22 | London, UK
Verge 2025 | Oct. 28-30 | San Jose, California, USA
European Rotors 2025 | Nov. 18-20 | Cologne, Germany

…and more to come.

Follow us on LinkedIn to stay up to date on where we'll be and connect with the team.

● Keep in Touch

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If you’re interested in buying or supplying carbon removal credits, contact our team at info@carbonfuture.earth.

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